Interactive Financial Model

Model the NoDwell Opportunity

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$24M
$1.0M/mo × 24
$24M$50M$75M$100M$150M
Draw Your Hockey Stick
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Year 1 Revenue
$2.8M
$697K EBITDA
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Year 2 Revenue
$38.3M
$13.0M EBITDA
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Y3 Cumulative EBITDA
$0
0x return
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8× Exit Valuation
$0
Y3 EBITDA: $0
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Adjust Assumptions
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Y1 Trucks: 4 3 yard / 1 city
EBITDA Margin
20% EBITDA
Yard Revenue
$450K Pilot: $650K+
City Revenue
$300K
Y2 Fleet
50 38y/12c
Y3 Fleet
200 125y/75c
Autonomy
0%
EV Fleet %
50%
Licensing Clients
0 trucks on platform
Maximum fleet funded by current investment - Slide past it and the investment adjusts automatically
Y1 Team: 14 FTE (6 senior + 8 AI-native) Burn Rate: $1.0M/mo Y3 Margin: 25% Y5 ARR: $219.7M
Included: Existing revenue ($650K pilot + $1.6M SugarCreek) • Yard & city trucking revenue per slider • EBITDA margin per slider • Y1 build year at 20% realization • Y2+ new trucks at 90% ramp • EV fleet savings ($30K/truck/yr) • Autonomy savings (Y3+) • Platform licensing (20% of added revenue from 20% utilization gain on $300K/truck) • Exit at 6-10× EBITDA
Excluded (conservative upside): Marketplace brokerage • Warehousing revenue • Truck parking revenue • Driver staffing • Fleet services
Reverse Engineer

Start With the Exit

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Target Y3 EBITDA
$ M
annual run-rate
Exit Multiple
× EBITDA
industry range: 6-10×
Implied Exit
$200M
EBITDA × multiple
Additional Investment Required
—
to fund the fleet